Blog Banter: How Do You Rate A Kicker?

Long-time Sabre fan Jeff Yutzler volunteered to take a look at grading field goal kickers and the placement operation. Enjoy!

After each football game, Greg Waters puts together an excellent report where he breaks down the play of individual units and provides a subjective grade for each. Part of the fun of reading the articles is dissecting the grades with comments like "You praised the OL so why did they just get a C+?" or "The DBs left a lot of room for improvement so why did they get an A-?" Particularly difficult is grading the field goal kicking operation because that unit generally has a limited number of plays and the impact of a make vs. a miss can be substantial. How do you compare a kicker who misses an extra point and makes a 50-yarder to one who makes an extra point but misses a 50-yarder?

This question got me thinking how I would write an objective measurement for field goal kickers. It is harder than it sounds. My first thought was to simply add up the total distance of kicks made and divide by the total distance of kicks attempted. However, when I looked at the results, it was clear that this approach overly penalized long misses and insufficiently penalized short misses. I knew a reasonable measurement for a kicker rating would require a more complex calculation so I took a look at the factors that I wanted to consider. Here is what I came up with:

• For made kicks, length of kick made should be a factor, but the factor needs to be scaled in such a way that the reward increases as the length of kick increases (the difference between a 50-yarder and a 40-yarder is greater than the difference between a 30-yarder and a 20-yarder)
• For missed kicks, there should be a penalty but that penalty needs to approach zero as the length of kick increases
• The results should be smooth so that the difference between kicks of similar distances is slight but measurable
• The rating needs to produce halfway reasonable results even with few attempts - no divide by zero errors or other bizarre results

I also made a few assumptions:

• Since we are evaluating the unit in isolation, extra points should count the same as 20-yard field goals
• Bonus points for making long kicks start at 35 yards (for high school I would decrease this by 5 and for pro I would increase it by 5)
• The penalty for missing drops to zero for kicks 55 yards and greater (again I would add/subtract 5 for high school/pro)

After playing around with the numbers for a while, I was able to come up with an algorithm that seems to come up with reasonable answers. I encoded it into a web form* so that one could enter the distances of makes and misses (separated by spaces) and click a button to get the grade. Try it out!

Applying the algorithm to our first two games yields the following results:

• UVa vs. Richmond: 4/5 XP, missed 51 and 50 = 72% or C-
• Richmond vs. UVa: 1/1 XP, made 36 and 41 = 100% or A+ (were you expecting something else?)
• UVa vs. USC: 2/2 XP, missed 35 and 45 = 75% or C
• USC vs. UVa: 2/2 XP, made 34, missed 47 = 93% or A

Next week (assuming I can get the stats) I'll take a look at the results of some of our best kickers to see how they stand up. Which kicker had the best season? Jake McInerney in 1990, Rafael Garcia in 1996, or Connor Hughes in 2003?

* The code is in clear text so those of you familiar with JavaScript can look at the logic.

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This Week In Recruiting
By Chris Horne

The 2011 men's basketball recruiting class is almost filled out after head coach Tony Bennett secured a verbal commitment from 6-8, 210-pound power forward Darion Atkins. Atkins, a standout out of the Landon School (Bethesda, MD), chose UVa over Notre Dame and others last week.

With Atkins in the fold, Virginia now has three verbal commitments in its 2011 class. 6-7, 185-pound Merrill (WI) wing forward Paul Jesperson and 6-5, 205-pound Greater Atlanta Christian (Atlanta, GA) guard Malcolm Brogdon have committed as well, giving the Hoos two perimeter prospects to go along with Atkins, who is an athletic addition to the frontcourt.

"[Darion] is extremely long and athletic," Landon School head coach Andy Luther said in an EDGE article earlier in September. "He has incredible timing as a shot-blocker. He has impressive vertical abilities and he gets back up off the floor really fast, which probably explains his gifts as a shot-blocker. He runs the floor very well. He's very active on the offensive glass. He has a good nose for the ball."

If Virginia chooses to use it, a fourth scholarship spot is available in the 2011 class. And if UVa indeed takes another, expect him to be another frontcourt prospect. Coach Bennett has secured a bundle of perimeter talent in the past two classes and the frontcourt could use some more depth. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised to see the staff pocket the scholarship for use in the 2012 class, where they have been working hard.

This week, I hope to have more on one of UVa's top 2012 point guard targets, Iowa prep star Marcus Paige. Paige, who was offered by UVa the week of the NBAPA Top 100 Camp, appears to be a top overall junior target of the Cavs.

Football recruiting ...

I plan to hit the 2012 trail on the football recruiting front as well this week. First, read an EDGE profile on 6-2, 200-pound Dan River (Ringold, VA) LB/RB Trey Edmunds. And later this week, I plan to have a profile up on 6-2, 230-pound Centreville (Clifton, VA) standout TE/DE Ken Ekanum, a junior UVa has already offered.

Commitment spotlight

2011 quarterback commitment David Watford passed for 143 yards and rushed for 136 more (on seven carries) as Hampton (VA) crushed Churchland 52-0. Watford, a 6-1, 185-pound senior, has helped the Crabbers to a 3-0 start to the 2010 season.

This week, I hope to have more from the talented signal caller, who is UVa's only sure-fire quarterback commitment in the 2011 class. I plan to catch up with Watford to discuss his senior season as well as his future at UVa, including whether or not that could begin earlier rather than later. The Hampton star is considering early enrollment, so we'll see how strong a possibility this is.

Chris Horne, our resident recruiting expert, provides updates throughout the week for Edge subscribers about UVa's commitments and recruiting targets in football and men's basketball. To sign up for an Edge subscription, please check out the Sabre Edge Sign Up and Information Page. If you're already on board as an Edge subscriber, click the links below to catch up on recruiting.

Sabre Edge recruiting updates from the past week ...

Newest Cavalier Discusses Decision
Darion Atkins celebrated his 18th birthday in style Friday by accepting a scholarship offer from the University of Virginia. The decision, which the 6-8, 210-pound Landon School (Bethesda, MD) power forward settled on Thursday night, was close, but Tony Bennett and company won out over Notre Dame.

Catching Up With Commit Ross Burbank
One of the first prospects to commit to the University of Virginia's 2011 class, Cox (Virginia Beach, VA) offensive lineman Ross Burbank has been pleased with what he has seen in each of the University of Virginia's first two regular season games. The 6-4 1/2, 295-pound senior was in Charlottesville on September 4, taking in his first ever UVa regular season football game.

More recent recruiting updates on The Sabre ...

• Junior Tackle Updates Season, Recruitment
• State's #2 Prospect Talks Transfer, Recruiting
• The Latest On Bayside's Nicholson
• Atkins Commits To UVa
• Atkins Set To Announce

Sabre fans, please welcome CapTech Ventures as our newest sponsor!

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Hoos Talking Returns!

The Sabre's Richmond radio partner "Hoos Talking" is back on the air! Hosted by Jim Hobgood and Frank Maloney on Wednesday evenings, the show features expert analysis as well as featured guests from around the world of UVa athletics. Check out The Sabre's Hoos Talking page for archived audio from this year's first three shows! The clips feature The Sabre's own Chris Horne and Kris Wright and more.

Hoos Talking will air from 6-8 p.m. on Wednesdays through football season. Don't forget, you can listen live on the Web - just click on The Sabre's Hoos Talking page for the "listen live" link.

Fan of the Week

Every week, theSabre.com features a Fan of the Week photo on the front page of the Web site. (Archives are available in the Wahoowa! section.) So you want to be the fan of the week? It's easy - be the loudest Hoo at a live UVa event, wear some crazy Cavalier gear, or do something else to catch our attention. If Mike or Kris spot you and take your picture, you'll be in the running for Fan of the Week honors!

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Around the World of Wahoo Sports ...

• Cavaliers Win Three Singles Titles at UVa Fall Invitational: Three members of the Virginia women's tennis team won singles flight titles as play concluded Sunday at the UVa Fall Invitational at the Snyder Tennis Center. Erin Vierra, Maria Fuccillo and Marjorie Baker led a UVa sweep of the top three singles flights.
• Women’s Soccer Suffers 1-0 Loss: The No. 5 Virginia women's soccer team suffered its first loss of the season, falling 1-0 at West Virginia on Sunday.
• Huffman and Lindsey Called into National Team Camp: Two former members of the Virginia women's soccer program were called into the United States Women's National Team's camp leading into a pair of friendlies next month. Midfielders Sarah Huffman (Class of 2006) and Lori Lindsey (Class of 2002) were among the 30 players named to the camp, that begins Sept. 20 in Kennesaw, Ga.
• No. 12 Wake Forest Edges No. 2 UVa, 1-0: No. 12 Wake Forest edged No. 2 Virginia, 1-0, Saturday night in men's soccer action at Klockner Stadium.
• Virginia Dominates George Mason, Falls To VT: The Virginia volleyball team closed out non-conference play Saturday evening by handily defeating in-state rival George Mason, 3-0 (25-18, 25-14, 25-11), in the final match of the Marriott Cavalier Classic. In front of a season-high 697 fans in Memorial Gymnasium on Friday night, Virginia dropped a heartbreaking five-set match to in-state rival Virginia Tech. Freshman McKenzie Adams and sophomore Jess O'Shoney were named to the all-tournament team for their play.
• No. 3 Virginia Downs Lafayette 4-0: The third-ranked Virginia field hockey team improved to 7-0 on the season with a 4-0 victory over Lafayette (2-4) in Easton, Pa. Junior Paige Selenski scored twice while Elly Buckley and Michelle Vittese also scored for UVa.
• Virginia Softball Announces Fall Schedule: The Virginia softball team played an intrasquad scrimmage on Saturday, the first event on its 2010 fall schedule. The Cavaliers, who made their first NCAA Tournament appearance in 2010, return 13 letterwinners, including six starters. Virginia will play host to Bridgewater for three games on Sept. 26 before heading to Harrisonburg, Va., for a doubleheader at James Madison on Oct. 8. The Cavaliers will close the fall with a doubleheader at home against George Mason on Oct. 15.
• Cavalier Golfers Finish Eighth at Fall Preview: The 11th-ranked Virginia women's golf team shot 2-under 286 during the final round of The Fall Preview to finish eighth in the 18-team field. Virginia was led by senior Calle Nielson who was 13th overall at 3-under 213.

For more Hoo news or to read full releases, check out Virginiasports.com.

UVa Bookstore Football Fan T-Shirt, Cap Bundle

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Get a fabulous deal with the UVA Bookstore's 2010 UVA Football T-shirt and V-Sabre stretch to fit cap bundle. This is a left chest and full back t-shirt. UVa is imprinted vertically by a football with the V-Sabre inside and Football imprinted underneath. The 3-D embroidered V-Sabre cap, by the Game, is a six panel structured cap with pre-curved visor and stretch to fit back. Virginia is embroidered on the back of the cap.

Issue No. 320 - Dec. 3, 2007

Virginia Accepts Gator Bowl Invitation

The Virginia football team accepted an invitation to play in the 2008 Konica Minolta Gator Bowl at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla., on Jan. 1. It is UVa's first Jan. 1 bowl game since the 1994 Carquest Bowl following the 1993 season; the Hoos fell to Boston College 31-13 in that game to finish 7-5. Needless to say, there's a lot more at stake this time around - Virginia is looking for its 10th win, something that has happened just once in the history of the program.

Getting to double digits in the victory column will require defeating Texas Tech from the Big 12 Conference. The Red Raiders, who feature an explosive offense, have won four of their last five bowl games. The Gator Bowl is scheduled to kickoff at 1 p.m. and will be televised nationally by CBS.

The Gator Bowl is also a test for Virginia fans, who have improved their travel reputation in recent years. However, the Cavs' only previous trip to the Gator Bowl in 1991 didn't produce a strong fan turnout from UVa. Gator Bowl Association president Rick Catlett believes that will not be the case this time around. He told The (Jacksonville) Times-Union that he received more than 100 e-mails Saturday from Virginia fans encouraging him to pick the Hoos.

"From every indication we've received, Virginia's fans will perform well by buying tickets to the game and traveling to Jacksonville," Catlett told The Times-Union.

Check Out SabreMail #320.

Coming Soon

The Sabre has you covered when it comes to Hoo news. Here are a few of the articles to expect on the site soon:

• State of the Programs: The Sabre plans to take a look back at a historic sports year for the Hoos, who locked up a record third place finish in the Director's Cup. Where do the various programs stand right now? We'll let you know!
• VMI: The Sabre's pregame coverage for VMI will get you ready for the third game of the season.

In Case You Missed It ...

Sabre articles since the last SabreMail

Dimas' Drive Propels UVa Midfield
The Cavalier men's soccer team lost several key players from last season's National Championship squad. The bulk of the 2010 team's offensive production has come from a core group of younger players. Midfield play will be crucial this season due to the youth movement up top for the Cavaliers. This season, sophomore midfielder Ari Dimas has stepped into a larger role with the departure of Jonathan Villanueva. Known for his scrappy style of play and excellent foot skills, Dimas runs the table for Virginia in the midfield.

JHoo's 10 Things I Learned 2010 ... USC
This was a game that the Hoos could have won and arguably should have won. Think about that ... a game on the road against a ranked opponent, one of the traditional college football powerhouses to boot, and the Hoos should have won it. Needless to say, the Mike London era is off to a somewhat surprising start.

Greg's Game Report: USC
Soon after Brian O'Connor took over the head baseball coaching job at Virginia, he made a statement that assured me his clubs would have success. After a series loss to the Miami Hurricanes, O'Connor said: "We didn't come here to compete, we came here to win." Mike London's Cavaliers did not go to the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum to compete - they went to win. So maybe the most disappointing aspect of Saturday's loss is what could have been.

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